"Based on epidemiological mathematics (SIRD Model) and data ofCOVID-19 cases for the period of June 16 to July 21, 2020 it indicates that the transmission of COVID-19 in South Kalimantan cannot be controlled in the near future and tends to be high," said Ahsar in Banjarmasin, Saturday.
He said that the mathematical model of epidemiology is very useful in studying the relation between various epidemic cases, evaluating case handling, and for planning prevention and control of health problems in a population.
The SIRD model is modified for cases that explicitly separate the recovered subpopulation from the deaths.
Since the first positive case of COVID-19 confirmed in South Kalimantan on March 22, 2020, the cases continued to increase significantly until the end of May 2020, when the implementation of Large Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) ended in the area.
The end of restriction (PSBB) in the province marked the start of a new normal, which is known as a new life order in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Ahsar said the parameter estimation in the SIRD model resulted in the transmission rate through contact between healthy individuals and infected individuals of 0,0379, the rate of recovery from infection 0,0190, and the rate of death after infection 0,0016.
"The transmission rate of 0,0379 means that there is a possibility of 379 people being infected per 10.000 people in a vulnerable subpopulation," explained the lecturer of Mathematics of the ULM's Faculty of Mathematics and Science (FMIPA ULM).
The value of the transmission rate of the disease is determined through effective between healthy individuals and infected individuals per unit time and the chance of successful infection is closely related to the character of COVID-19.
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Meanwhile, Yuni Yulida, another expert from FMIPA ULM, added although the chance of success for the virus infection cannot be changed, but can be controlled through an effective contact regulation mechanism.
The effective contact control includes preventive measures in the work and social environment, which include the implementation of physical distancing, the availability of handwashing facilities, and the implementation of respiratory ethics such as wearing masks.
If these preventive measures can be implemented according to health protocol, the rate of COVID-19 transmission in South Kalimantan can be reduced.
While the recovery rate of 0,0190 and death rate of 0,0016 from COVID-19 infection, meaning there are around 19 people who recover and 1 to 2 people to die from 1.000 infected people.
The recovery and death rate, she said, depends on the handling of the COVID-19 infected case. This is related to the effort and capabilities of the existing health system (hospital to medical equipment) in identifying, isolating, testing, contact tracing, and quarantining infected people.
"The higher capabilities and efforts of the health system in South Kalimantan will increase the rate of recovery and reduce the rate of death from COVID-19 infected cases," she said.
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